Political Insider

In 1999, when Hillary Clinton first began talking about running for the U.S. Senate representing New York, some pundits and Democratic insiders publicly suggested she hold off and run in Illinois in 2004 instead. After all, they reasoned, Clinton had roots in Illinois and no ties to New York. And then-Sen. Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois looked vulnerable. Clinton of course made the move to New York and planted the base for her future presidential run there.

By 2004, Fitzgerald had decided to retire, and the GOP nominated charismatic multimillionaire investment banker Jack Ryan -- who had gone off to teach at an inner-city school in Chicago after making his fortune -- as its candidate to succeed him. The Democrats had a four-way primary. Businessman Blair Hull, State Comptroller Daniel Hynes, and Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas were defeated by a state senator named Barack Obama.

After Ryan won the GOP nomination, he was forced to quit the race in late July due to an alleged sex scandal involving his ex-wife, "Star Trek: Voyager" actress Jeri Ryan. The GOP essentially ceded the seat to the Democratic nominee, importing former presidential candidate Alan Keyes, who was not an Illinois resident, to compete against Obama. Obama defeated Keyes 70% to 27%, a margin of more than 2.2 million votes.

It is of course unclear what would have happened if Clinton had opted to wait until 2004 to run for the Senate in Illinois. Much of her initial success was due to her revived popularity in the wake of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and a lot could have happened to the Clintons during four years out of office. If she did return to Illinois to run, though, she probably would have been nominated. While the GOP might not have opted for Keyes, Ryan's collapse essentially would have guaranteed her a general election win in a state that the national Democratic ticket carried by nearly 550,000 votes.

A first-term Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-IL) might not be a solid favorite for the 2008 Democratic nomination, but in this alternate 2008, she at least would not have to confront Barack Obama, who would likely be languishing in obscurity in Springfield.

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With Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) publicly stating he'd consider becoming a Republican if Democrats block new funding for the Iraq War, many Democrats worry that control of the Senate hangs in the balance. However, their fears are unfounded. Many think back to 2001 when former Sen. Jim Jeffords (I-VT) began caucusing with Democrats instead of Republicans, taking control of the Senate out of GOP hands. However, the two situations - though outwardly similar - contain one important difference.

If Lieberman were to caucus with the Republicans, they would still not take full control of the Senate, despite Vice President Dick Cheney's ability to break 50-50 ties. This is because of a little-known Senate organizing resolution, passed in January, which gives Democrats control of the Senate and committee chairmanships until the beginning of the 111th Congress.

What's the difference between now and 2001? A small but important distinction. When the 107th Congress was convened on January 3, 2001, Al Gore was still the Vice President and would be for another two-and-a-half weeks. Therefore, because of the Senate's 50-50 tie, Democrats had nominal control of the chamber when the organizing resolution came to a vote. With Dick Cheney soon to come in, however, Democrats allowed Republicans to control the Senate in return for a provision on the organizing resolution that allowed for a reorganization of the chamber if any member should switch parties, which Jeffords did five months later. There was no such clause in the current Senate's organizing resolution.

As Sen. Feingold prepares to hold hearings on Congress's authority to cut off war funds, let's see if the media can keep a few questions straight: 1) will the Democrats really try to do this? 2) do they have the Constitutional authority? 3) should they -- meaning, is it politically smart and/or the right thing to do? 4) what would the real-world effect of cutting funding be?

I watch political talk shows all the time, and so far there's hardly any distinction between these streams of thought. There's one of two cynical assumptions made from the start: either that Dems have the power to do this -- and should go through with it -- but won't because of political calculation and cowardice, or that Dems would be reckless to do it but actually might entertain the idea in order to respond to growing public anger over the war.

For a healthy, non-hyperventilating discussion on the topic, I fear we can only trust the Newshour.

Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) apparently brings "a needlepoint pillow, emblazoned with Kennedy's name and the Great Seal of the United States" with him to meetings. A source tells the Washington D.C. Examiner he often brings it with him "in case the chairs are hard."

Said a spokeswoman: "There's no nostalgic reason for us having it. We just brought it along with the stool in case anyone would want to use it during the conference."

Heard on the Hill: "Former President Bill Clinton apparently wasn't aware that 'no cell phones' applied to him, too, as he sat in the Senate gallery last Thursday chatting a-mile-a-minute on his cell phone during swearing-in ceremonies. Never mind that his wife was about to take the oath of office for another six-year term. He had work to do or friends to catch up with (he even passed the phone to a friend nearby)."

The health of South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson is the sole focus of those close to him as he continues to recover at George Washington University Hospital following brain surgery early Thursday. Though news outlets continue to focus on the possibly of the balance of power shifting in the Senate should the lawmaker be replaced, "talk of appointments is premature," according to sources close to the senator.

The sources also blasted the Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes, who appeared on the Dec. 14 edition of Special Report with Brit Hume, for implying a cover-up of Johnson's health. Referring to health updates on the senator, Barnes said, "There is a long history of the doctors reports about politicians from the president on down about doctor's reports being untrue. You really have to be wary of them... I'm not saying we -- anybody has told an untruth about Senator Johnson, but this does happen."

Comparing Johnson's condition and updates about it to that of Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy is not "appropriate." Barnes "implying a cover-up and then saying he's not" can "arouse suspicion" unnecessarily. Sources are calling Barnes' insinuation "false and irresponsible." They make clear that the attending physician of the Capitol, Admiral John Eisold, was with the Johnson family and the George Washington medical team from the beginning and has remained on top of the situation.

All medical updates are "being supplied as soon as possible" through Johnson's Senate office. An update can be expected later today.

Though many continue to speculate on Johnson's health, "medical conditions are individual" and the ramifications of his illness are not yet known.

Johnson, who was diagnosed with arteriovenous malformation, did not know he suffered from the condition previous to falling ill late Wednesday afternoon.

Sen Tim Johnson's office released the following statement:

"Senator Tim Johnson has continued to have an uncomplicated post-operative course. Specifically, he has been appropriately responsive to both word and touch. No further surgical intervention has been required."

I don't want to be a pest, but isn't all of this speculating on the control of the Senate beyond morbid? We're talking about someone's life, not an instant replay review in an endzone. How about everyone cut out the what-if scenarios and wish Sen. Johnson and his staff -- who must be devastated today -- our best.

The Washington Post: "In a 50-50 Senate, Vice President Cheney could break tie votes in the GOP's favor. But a Senate that becomes evenly split after it is in session would not necessarily fall to Republicans, Senate historians said. Rules and precedents could leave a party in charge of the chamber even after its membership falls below that of the other party."

Most news organizations are reporting that South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds (R) would appoint a successor if Sen. Tim Johnson's (D-SD) illness forces him to leave office.

For instance, CNN quotes South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson who believes "an appointment would fill the vacancy until a general election could be held in November 2008."

However, a state statute suggests a special election must be held:

"Special election to fill congressional vacancy -- Time of election of representative. If a vacancy occurs in the office of a senator or representative in the United States Congress it shall be the duty of the Governor within ten days of the occurrence, to issue a proclamation setting the date of and calling for a special election for the purpose of filling such vacancy. If either a primary or general election is to be held within six months, an election to fill a vacancy in the office of representative in the United States Congress shall be held in conjunction with that election, otherwise the election shall be held not less than eighty nor more than ninety days after the vacancy occurs."

There is no provision in the state law if a Senator is incapacitated but does not leave office. In this case, the U.S. Senate would likely have to take action on whether to vacate the seat.

Update: Apparently another section of the law applies specifically to Senate vacancies: "Special election to fill senate vacancy. The special election to fill the vacancy of a senator shall be held at the same time as the next general election. The general election laws shall apply unless inconsistent with this chapter."

In addition: "No special election if appointed senator's term expires at normal time. No special election, to fill a vacancy, may be held if the term of office of the appointed senator expires in the month of January immediately following the next general election that would occur after the vacancy."

According to the AP, Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD), who was hospitalized today with an undiagnosed illness, "did not suffer a stroke or heart attack. His office had said earlier it was a possible stroke."

Johnson's office did not anticipate any more updates until Thursday.

From Sen. Tim Johnson's (D-SD) office:

"Senator Tim Johnson was taken to George Washington University Hospital this afternoon suffering from a possible stroke. As this stage, he is undergoing a comprehensive evaluation by the stroke team. Further details will be forthcoming when more is known."

Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), "the incoming chairman of the influential Armed Services Committee, scuttled retirement rumors Monday by announcing he would seek a sixth term in 2008," reports CQ Politics.

If Senator John Kerry (D) as expected launches a second Presidential bid, by Massachusetts law, it will open up the first Senate seat to be vacant in twenty-four years. Because Senate seats rarely are open in the Bay State, this opportunity means that most of the state's Congressional delegation may give up a House seat to seek the Senate seat. Already they are planning their bids and raising money.

Reps Marty Meehan, Ed Markey, Barney Frank, Jim McGovern, John Tierney, and Stephen Lynch have all said they will probably run and have begun stockpiling cash. Also, U.S. Congressmen John Tierney, Michael Capuano, as well as Chris Gabrieli, who just lost a bid for Governor, former Attorney General Scott Harshbarger, former State Senator Patricia McGovern, and recently elected Attorney General Martha Coakley round out the potential field. Boston Mayor Thomas Menino also is rumoured to be making calls about a possible bid.

The Republican side is just as eager with candidates, who may not be as viable but interested none the less. The most prominent is Patrick Guerriero, a former Mayor and State Senator, who briefly ran for Lt. Governor and is Executive Director of the Log Cabin Republicans, seems to be the most prominent, with the landslide defeat of Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, who was the other candidate mentioned. Former Governor Paul Cellucci is an attractive candidate if he would consider the bid.

Already, Meehan has raised nearly $5 million, followed by Frank at $2 million, Markey at $1.7 million, and Lynch has $1.3 million. The figures raised by the other candidates is not known at this point.

Roll Call: "Senate Democratic aides are a tad nervous about Sen. Joe Lieberman (Whatever-Conn.) hiring a former GOP spokesman to be his new communications director. Especially those working for potential 2008 Democratic presidential contenders."

"Several Senate Democratic aides say they're uneasy about the notion of Lieberman's new communications director, Marshall Wittmann, sitting in on their weekly press secretary meetings."

Sen-elect Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sen-elect James Webb (D-VA) will be on Meet the Press this weekend. If you miss it, you can watch the webcast after 1pm on Sunday or subscribe to the podcast.